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DougS.

02/11/17 12:37 PM

#109153 RE: RealDutch #109152

Correct. This is site work - no possible chance that they're building vertical elements yet.

The satellite photos from Dec. 2016 still show it as a vegetated pit. Almost identical to the Google maps which are from Dec. 2015. So in the last two months they've brought heavy equipment back to the site.

There's a couple broad conclusions I'm willing to make but a lot of things that are still to be verified with the next satellite photo:

1. Usually when you bring the earth moving equipment out, that means you're committed to building the foundation because the graded earth will quickly erode if you don't get the concrete in place and you'll have to regrade. The exception is with site clearing where you're simply just removing vegetation in anticipation of trenching. But given the contours of the ponds, I don't think that's what's going on here. I think they would only bring out the equipment if they were committed to building the form work and pouring.

2. Since the foundation work is far and away the largest cost component of these buildings (they're basically giant foundation systems with a roof), they are likely confident that they have the funds to build this unit out.

I'm about 70% confident of this. Still in "wait and see" mode but it's nice to see some visual progress. The good news is that Sentinel-2 averages one flyover every 2 months. So we should get at least one satellite update before the Q1 report.