The idea of exercising warrants leads into what we have discussed ad nauseum on this board.
If warrants, which were taken as collateral to ensure treasury got most of their money back if the GSEs went into receivership then people would start legal action.
The warrants were issued as a guarantee and it'd be exceptionally greedy of the government to not only take a substantial over-payment, but also shareholder equity.
This would yield around 100% profit to the government.
Which is NOT an investor, it is an entity that is supposed to do the things that are the best for the U.S. and all businesses in the U.S.
If you look at the executive order issued on Friday there are hints that Trump is telling his administration to go and review issues in which the government has overstepped its power.
While the warrants and SPSPA were legal to be issued. The amount of draws and the very goal of a conservatorship which defined by FHFA is supposed to enable the companies to get back on stable ground and eventually leave conservatorship has pretty much gone out the window because EVERYONE in the government refused to act. No one could come up with a solution to the housing market, no one really cared as long as billions were going into the general fund of the treasury.
This is pretty much why people do not believe the warrants will be exercised (among other reasons)
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