Replies to post #208697 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Do you view [Repatha CVOT] news as positive for ESPR?

Yes, to a degree; however, until we know the HR achieved on the primary MACE endpoint in the Repatha CVOT, I would remain cautious. The 20% pop for ESPR may be an overreaction.

[DewDiligence]

AMGN +4% on Repatha CVOT top-line results. A modest gain is warranted, IMO, because AMGN has not yet revealed the HR of the primary (MACE) endpoint, and the CVOT was large enough to have 90% statistical power to detect a mere 15% relative reduction in MACE risk.

Note that a 15% relative reduction in MACE risk should equate to an absolute reduction in MACE risk of ≤1% in the primary-prevention population that was tested in the CVOT.