Replies to post #279270 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[stoxx]

Thanks CP but the $250M $ ? Is who is keeping the PPS under a $.32 lid?

And Why?

[Dragon Lady]

Quote LOL, "So a possible Reverse Split if we do not trade above 1$ before April 10 2017 (that is more then 120 days from now) will split the shares and increase the price. If PPHM has the news then they will be able to grow on that PPS. I think the PPS will in all cases be around 1$ and they might do a 1/7 to bring the stock in a price range where all brokers/II/Funds may buy it or advice it because it will be above 5$.

5$ would at that time be covered completely by:

- About 0.5Bil$ Tax advantages
- Avid Assets
- Avid 3rd party revenue

If the PPS is 5$ then the outstanding common shares are no longer 250Mil shares, so we stay about 250Mil$ Market Cap. The 3 items above are worth MORE then 250Mil$ as the tax advantage will probably be about 150Mil$ minimum tax deduction on 0.5B$ (I used 30% corporate tax-rate but not sure if that is correct for the US). "

WHAT?????????????? HUH ??

1) The date for reverse split is NOT April 10th. And it's not as simple as merely "trading above $1 lousy buck. They MUST TRADE ABOVE $1 BUCK A SHARE for 10, TEN BUSINESS TRADING DAYS CONSECUTIVE...READ THE SEC FILINGS. THEE LAST DAY, DROP DEAD LAST DAY is TEN DAYS PRIOR to April 10th for the reverse split to BE COMPLETED IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN NASDAQ LISTING.....AND..the stock would have already had to put in its 10 DAYS above $1 buck. That means MID MARCH 2017 will be THEE DROP DEAD last day before they split these POS PENNY SHARES. NOT April 15th, AND NOT 120 days from now.

They have approx 86 TRADING DAYS LEFT before the absolute DROP DEAD MUST DO THE REVERSE SPLIT or face a NASDAQ DE-LIST date.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/704562/000168316816000298/peregrine_8k.htm

SEC 8-K, DELISTING NOTICE FROM NASDAQ:

"If the Company chooses to implement a reverse stock split in order to regain compliance with the Minimum Bid Price Requirement, the Company must complete the split no later than 10 business days prior to April 10, 2017 in order to timely regain compliance."

SEC FILINGS, they're their for a reason.

2) Companies DO NOT get bought for their FREAKING "TAX LOSSES", LOL !! The "tax blah blah" buy-out angle is a myth. No company plunks down hard cash in order to get some fantasy "tax benefit" ?? DOES NOT HAPPEN. Further, by 2017, the U.S. Corp tax rate is going to be FIFTEEN PERCENT, any not a supposed 30%. PPHM's $500 million loss on it's "face value" (which NO ONE IS GOING TO PAY FULL VALUE FOR) would be approx .15 X 500 = $75 million at most, but in reality a fraction of that amount, if one were to buy it with a net present discounted cash value.

3) Some fantasy $250 MILLION market cap would be the likely MAX BUY-OUT "value" (BUT they have NO buyers, or even appearance of anyone interested) for this $70 MILLION market cap, PHASE III FAILER, NO clinical trials running, NON PROFIT till at least mid 2018, NO PROOF THEIR MAIN "product" has ever worked in humans via a long series of failed clinical trials, TWO PRIOR REVERSE SPLITS, PENNY POS micro-cap, $500 MILLION and 30 year LOSING STREAK, NON PROFIT POS ....thus making $250 million the highest they'd probably EVER fetch if anyone were ever even interested in "buying them out", which in 30 years so far, NO ONE HAS MADE SUCH AN OFFER, and it sure as H ain't gonna be for fantasy $BILLIONS LOL !! NO FREAKING WAY. 4X present market cap would be just a tad above present market cap- and that's w/o the aftermath of the coming REVERSE SPLIT NUMERO THREE...after which things will be even worse looking more than likely. Their cash is depleting rapidly too, so they've got less "assets" on the books with each passing day, while building a low barrier to entry, high customer count risk concentration, very easily replicated little manufacturing biz, while NO LONGER really even being a serious "clinical trials" company, something they've made 100% CRYSTAL CLEAR in their SEC filing language and public commentary of their CEO and other SR Mgt staff.

That's makes the PRESENT "buy-out" absolute max amount likely approx $1.00 BUCK A SHARE to me..."maybe" $1.25 absolute TOPS in my book (but highly doubtful IMO). Post the 1-for-7 REVERSE SPLIT which is for all intents and purposes "IMMINENT", that would be approx $6.00 to $7.00 per share absolute max, AFTER THEY SPLIT THE SHARES early next year at the latest IMO.

Approx 86 trading days to REVERSE SPLIT IT and NOT A SINGLE SIGN of any fantasy "buyers" even interested, ON-GOING LOSSES for at least approx 18 MORE MONTHS per their own mgt speaking, and NO clinical trials running, and IF they manage to get any trials running, they're gonna be SMALL and BACK AT PHASE I/II and thus MANY YEARS from producing any useful data.

THIS POS would be lucky on its best day to be bought-out for it's present market cap, or "maybe" a 2X to 3X multiple of that, which would be "maybe" $150 MILLION to $250 MILLION TOPS, total "value" of this money burner, dilution machine PENNY STOCK POS....

Right now, POST SPLIT...these shares will be trading for approx $2.25, "maybe" $3.50 a share ABSOLUTE lotto odds max IMO....simple as that....then likely face a steep decline from the negative effects of their THIRD REVERSE SPLIT...causing even more market cap losses is my guess...making the entire above scenario look and get even worse. Meaning their buy-out "value", if they even have any at this point, just GOES LOWER from there to me....

My 31 CENTS or so worth on it...for whatever it's worth...which ain't much, LOL !!

[Carboat]

What I am thinking is that either PPHM has news that brings us above 1$ for 10 trading days (and CEO King thinks they may have such news) or they don't.

Duhhh

I even wonder if PPHM is still a US controlled company because the way the US allows trading/MM action/naked shorting etc these days it may well be that the nation wakes up some day realising that its crown jewels are owned by non-US entities that, under the greed of shorting and illegal naked sorting by others, grab the occasion to buy into companies that they believe have the goods.

Funny how these issues only effect broken, mismanaged penny stocks like pphm

PPHM is such company that without any doubt has the goods and of which the PPS is artificially low.

Sorry but there is considerable doubt. They have NEVER had a succesful late-stage trial - remember?

I think the PPS will in all cases be around 1$ and they might do a 1/7 to bring the stock in a price range where all brokers/II/Funds may buy it or advice it because it will be above 5$.

WHy would you think that? It is $.3x now with no events on horizon except RS. Like postRS selloff is $1.50 - $2

Today it is based on REAL VALUE/ASSETS (Labs), REAL measurable TAX deduction, measurable/growing and REPORTED 3rd party revenue (AVID) and a POTENTIAL of Bavituximab with WAY LESS RISK LEVELS then 2 or more years ago.

No, today it is based on: all PS trials failed, pending RS, poor mgmt., sleazy bod, no current trials. That is why $.3x

[TampaTradr]

"PPHM is such company that without any doubt has the goods and of which the PPS is artificially low."

That is an OPINION but stated as a fact. The II's and the market seem not to share your "Opinion".

[corporalagarn]

You can not buy NOL's. Saying it is worth $150m in market cap is just wrong.