As it stands now I'm assuming a 3% reduction in sp tomorrow. DGAZ is now 100% in December . This 15% contango is great news because as the November contract rolls into December Thursday, it should normalize towards where it was Friday. Not saying NatGas Dec contracts goes sub 3.00, but 3.23 is not out of the question. This 5% drop in Nat Gas (3.40 to 3.23) would result in about 15% increase and bring DGAZ to $5.33 or so.
DGAZ is tracking Dec contract which closed at $3.36 115k vol and currently $3.39 tonight
Stockchart which by the way changed the name of the Natgas chart from Spot EOD to Continuous contract is tracking Nov 163k vol
stockcharts changes the chart from frt month to fwd month when the vol decreases on frt month below fwd month.
This could happen as early as tomorrow after close or late as Thurs. Visualize what the Nov chart would look like if you all of sudden painted the Dec NG close, huge upward spike and percent gain. No matter when that happens contract rolls on Thursday. Normally the fwd month falls toward the frt month 2-3 days prior to contract roll and that is when we have .10-.15 contango. .38 is massive gap to close. If the wx is mild this week I can't imagine NG all of a sudden being $3.4 and holding.
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