That is some excellent weather research. If winter does not fully kick in till the new year should enter spring 2017 with a 2000bcf surplus. Even factoring in a late cold winter Jan Feb March 12 weeks of draws averaging 150bcf per week the numbers are still going to go into spring fat because of the slow start.
Expectation of LONG MILD Fall temps till mid of Nov and get a gust of Cold Air and back into Dec with Expectations of MILD Winter possibly COLD comes back around Jan or Feb. of 2017 With these Long MILD Fall and Winter Patterns could injection numbers go well above 4k for 2016
December looks to be the most classically El Niño-like month of this winter, with very mild temperatures dominating across the East Coast, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northern Plains. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across Texas, the Four Corners, and the Great Basin.
As we head deeper into winter, especially during late January and February, we expect that a significant change in the jet stream pattern will bring an end to the mild period, and lead to several weeks of colder weather from the Great Lakes to the Southeastern states. This pattern will be reminiscent of the one we experienced in the last two winters, though thankfully not as persistent or severe. Still, near- to below seasonal temperatures should dominate the Eastern US through the second half of winter.
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