- Chinese data this time tries to help the market. - Did the Friends of Janet try to save the market from losses ahead of the election? - Budget deficit soars explodes despite record taxes. - Atlanta Fed takes down Q3 GDP yet again. - Does the Fed really think anyone believes it? - Volatility strikes back, leaves the indices technically bearish overall, though in this market they could bounce near term first. Of course, then there is the Fed.
Did the friends of Janet just stick save the market again?
It was a week that returned to old themes, one being China. Another is volatility with day to day and intraday tennis match swings. Another is Fed action in times of market stress. Not market crisis, but simple market stress. The economy is, after all, recovering right? After all, the Atlanta Fed just reduced its Q3 GDP to half its original estimate. It would be very untoward just ahead of a presidential election if stocks rolled over and tumbled, belying the purported economic prosperity that everyone talks about but very few feel. All three were at work during the week, and the market action suggests they are not done.
On Thursday China reported exports fell 10%. Stocks fell hard, but just as several indices breached the early September lows hit on that sharp plunge, they reversed. No positive close but they went a long way in cutting the losses.
Friday there was more Chinese economic news but this time it was viewed as a positive. Its PPI rose (0.1% versus -0.3% expected) for the first time since March 2012 and helped bolster stocks and continue the Thursday rebound. September retail sales snapped back to 0.6% from -0.2% in August, adding to the upside impetus.
Stocks started higher but unfortunately hit their high at 10:20ET. That put NASDAQ at its 50 day SMA, SP500, RUTX and DJ30 at their 50 day EMA, and SOX and SP400 at their 10 day EMA. In short, they bounced, but bounced right into resistance. And, resistance held. A sharp drop to midday ensued, and then the indices range traded into the close.
VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -9%. Trade at least faded on the reversal, but it is because of a lack of volume that helped the reversal along given the early buying was not strong. Thus trade faded farther below average.
A/D: NYSE flat, NASDAQ flat.
The chart action on the week is bearish. The big Tuesday drop, the pause, then the Thursday gap and selloff. The rebound was modestly encouraging as it looked as if the Fed stepped in on SP500 and company and bought the dip, driving those indices back up inside the early September lows hit on that massive plunge 6 Fridays back.
The Friday action kept the indices above the early September low but that is about all it did. The indices moved up to tap resistance either from the 50 day EMA or the 10 day EMA and then reversed to give up nearly all the session gains. Indeed, RUTX did give up its gains and closed lower.
So, in a nutshell, after a quiet period where volatility died down and the NYSE indices looked as if they might try to follow NASDAQ and SOX' strength, the big V returned with gusto this week. A new selloff to new lows on this pullback for some of the indices, followed by a bounce that looks all but dead and over with.
That reopens the downside door and again leaves you asking the question, will the Fed try to stop any selling given the election is less than a month away? I am inclined to answer that 'yes.' It likely tried it on Thursday as the indices rolled over to undercut the September low. Will the Fed be successful? In the short run the Fed can pull that off. It did so in February and pushed a very solid rebound. Friday Yellen was more dovish, "steering to the left of the Minutes" as a JPM analyst described it, indicating that she, of course, will take actions she deems necessary. So, it appears she will try, but will she overcome the market's bearish patterns.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Budget Deficit soars even as tax receipts hit a record.
Spending rose 5% to 3.9T as the US borrows $0.15 of every dollar spent.
For fiscal year 2016 the US government's budget deficit surged 34% to $587B.
As a percentage of GDP the deficit climbed to 3.2% from 2.5% the prior year.
Tax receipts hit a record of $3.27T, yet our deficit surges.
As is often stated, there is no revenue problem, there is a spending problem. Despite raising taxes and taking in more taxes from higher and newer taxes, the deficit grows. Economists always say you cannot tax your way out of the kind of deficit the US runs, and this past year provides a textbook example of that.
Q3 GDP estimates are slashed further. Who would have thought?
Friday the Atlanta Fed, after a rosy 3.8% projection for Q3 initially, made yet another cut to that forecast. 3%, 2.6%, now just 1.9%. As the data comes in, the numbers shrink. We have seen this movie too many times, the one where hope springs eternal that things will get better in the second half, that the economy is just about to take off. Then, nothing. The same old stumbling, bumbling economy.
So, here's to a 1.4% 2016 GDP if Q4 can come in with the 1.6% currently forecast and if the 1.9% Q3 revision is not revised even lower.
Lines of BS Part 2
As noted Thursday, you cannot watch news today and come away with any semblance of the truth. I am not talking about the reporters per se, though their inability to grasp the concepts and ask germane, meaningful questions exposes the failures of journalism schools in addition to the viewpoints where they work. Today I am talking about the guest experts on television or the radio, invited to share their wisdom with all of us. They appear on these stations with their titles, they spout their viewpoints and talking points, then they leave their short segment, unchallenged as to what was just stated.
A real time example: Another Federal Reserve bank president interview
Fed bank president Harker appeared on Fox Business Thursday morning to give his take on rates and the economy. Mr. Harker was asked about the jobs market and how some aspects looked promising, but others such as participation rates, were not. As a reminder, the participation rate as defined by the BLS is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional (i.e. no prisoners) population aged 16 or over in the labor force (working or actively seeking work). The participation rate in September stood at 62.9%, just off lows hit back in the early 1970's and those wonderful economic times. At that percentage, that tells you 94.1M working age US citizens not only out of work, but out of the workforce.
Harker confidently stated that the participation rate was low and was going to stay low for one simple reason: baby boomers are retiring. That is it. That is his explanation.
Here is the problem with that, and a problem we have with just about all conclusions the Fed reaches: it is direct conflict with the data that the BLS compiles.
The participation rate tumbled at the time of the financial crisis from 66.4 to 62.4 in late 2015. There was no mass retirement at the time of the financial crisis. People simply lost their jobs and could not find jobs to replace them. As the 'recovery' progressed, they were able to find work, but many work part time at more than one job or work 'full time' at a job that pays far less than they full-time salary earned pre-crisis. Moreover, per the September BLS jobs report, just 48% of all workers hold a full-time job right now.
But here is the kicker. As I have reported each month for years, more months than not have shown that it is the elderly, those 55 and over, who are taking the bulk of the low wage hourly jobs this economy creates. They are forced back into work because they simply cannot afford to live with 1) the Fed holding interest rates near 0%, rendering traditional income producing assets dead assets, 2) surging costs of healthcare (the ACA), 3) surging rents, 4) food inflation.
Thus the elderly are not retiring but being forced back into the workforce. Then why is the participation rate stagnant, and in Harker's words, going to remain depressed?
Look at the other end of the spectrum. We pay people not to work in the US. Several studies show that a single, non-working mother with 3 to 4 children who participates in all federal programs has more disposable income than the same person working a $70K per year job who pays her taxes and is not eligible for those same benefits because of her income. Again, we pay people not work in the US.
It is not because they are lazy or stupid. To the contrary, they are quite smart, taking advantage of what is offered. Whether conscious or not, they are making rational economic decisions about their lives. That is why I always ask this simple question to any politician who comes to me for a donation: do you believe if you pay someone to do something they will do it, or if you pay someone not to do something they won't do it? If they cannot answer a clear 'yes' to that question I know they do not understand economics and accordingly will not make good decisions under pressure.
Thus, we PAY a large percentage of citizens not to work, to stay out of the workforce. Oh that doesn't mean they just sit and take benefits. No, they also work jobs here and there for cash and again, make an economic decision not to report it. The odds of their being caught are low while the benefits of tax free money are high. Thus they don't work in the system, participate in the government benefits, work side jobs for cash, and pay no taxes. Oh yes, and they are out of the workforce.
The Fed connection
But the Fed is not just talking, it is part of the problem. Capital investment came up in the interview and Harker said that the businesses he talked with all say it is the uncertainty of the times that keeps them from making capital investment.
Sure uncertainty always plays a role. Harker is being disingenuous, however, in ignoring the Fed's role. The Fed has held interest rates near 0% for over a decade. When there is uncertainty there is less inclination for businesses to risk capital investment. When you have an alternative, there is no reason to take on the risk of capital investment.
Large corporations can access cash for virtually no cost in the current extremely low rate environment. They can then turn around and invest in guaranteed returns such as bonds. Money for nothing, guaranteed return, no risk, no brainer. They make money with no risk, can use the money to buy back stock or block competition from entering their domain, further increasing profitability. They can take the extra profits and buy back more stock. They reduce the float, automatically increase earnings per share, trigger their clauses in their compensation packages, take home great bounuses.
This is the SAME thing the Wells Fargo management was just hauled in front of Congress for. The same issues that led to the Wells Fargo CEO to resign Thursday. The management set up a system that rewarded certain behavior and to what should have been no one's surprise, the employees acted according to the way the system was set up. To stand up and proclaim ignorance and innocence as to what your employees do under the system you set up is despicable.
For the Fed to arrogantly talk of the causes of the lack of capital investment in the US and gloss over its effects on the citizenry while wholly ignoring its primary role in the causation is either the height of arrogance or the epitome of educational ignorance where theory blurs out all reality or effects of implementing that theory.
The most shocking aspect of this to me (because I am aware of all of the other statistics stated) is that the Fed members pontificate on policy and CONTROL OUR FINANCIAL LIVES, yet base their actions regarding our financial lives on erroneous assumptions. Thus we have a Fed that thinks the economy is in recovery because the unemployment rate is low even with 94.1M people out of the workforce. It isn't retirement that has them out, it is the incentive to not work, and that incentive is not at the higher ages but at people in their prime earning years. Is it any wonder, outside of the low wage hour jobs that now predominate this economy, why average wages are so low?
THE MARKET
The indices look weak once again from a technical standpoint. From a Fed stand point . . .
CHARTS
SP500: Gapped upside, rallied through the 10 day EMA and near the 50 day EMA but then faded the entire move. Still above the early September lows on that sharp selloff, but on the week SP500 renewed the downside with that sharp Tuesday fall, and the Thursday reversal and Friday fizzled rally are not encouraging that technically it can hold up. Then there is the Fed . . .
DJ30: Gapped and rallied to the 50 day EMA on the high, then reversed to close at the session low. Held a gain; moral victory because the failure at resistance shows that what buyers there were early fled the scene. DJ30 is still in the 5 week lateral range following that sharp drop in early September, but also a technically weak pattern.
NASDAQ: Gapped upside, moved through the 50 day SMA, then faded almost the entire move, closing back below the 50 day EMA where it started. Not the most auspicious rebound from selling though NASDAQ does hold one of its uptrends from early 2016, and NASDAQ's pattern is not as toppy as the other two large cap indices. It can hold here and continue as if nothing happened -- but it has to hold over 5165.
RUTX: Rallied off the Thursday selling, moving up near the 50 day EMA but never touching it before rolling over and closing at the session low. Still just over the early September low, pretty much RUTX' last line of defense to hold the current rally off the June low.
SP400: Gapped and rallied to the 10 day EMA then reversed the move to just a modest gain. Broke the up trendline from January on Tuesday, posted a lower low undercutting the early September low, then tried a rebound. Friday SP400 gapped upside, made that 10 day EMA test, then faded the move. Still over the September low but quite weak.
SOX: SOX showed a nice doji with tail Thursday as SOX made a full test back to the 50 day MA's that it has used as support on this move. Friday a gap higher to at tombstone doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the high and faded. SOX is still in a nice uptrend but it will have to show it can hold what might be another quick test of this level.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: AAPL gapped to a decent gain. AMZN tried to gap off its 20 day EMA test but faded the entire move. FB struggled and failed to hold a move back over the 20 day EMA. NFLX gapped over resistance in a recovery move. GOOG tried higher again, but settled back to the 20 day EMA again on the close.
Chips: SWKS looks fine testing its 20 day EMA. SLAB is testing its 50 day MA's. MRVL holding up fine after a quick 50 day EMA test Thursday. AMAT broke the 50 day MA's on the week. AMD still in a decent recovery. MU tested the 50 day MA's on the week. Mostly in good enough shape, but definitely testing.
Industrial equipment: Solid action with CAT bouncing off the 20 day EMA. CMI is holding the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Still some very good tests, e.g. APA, CRK. Others have run a long way and may be a bit tired but have not broken, e.g. CWEI, APC. HAL has surged, needs a breather.
Financial: A mixed bag Friday but decent enough n the week. BAC tested but held. C surged but purged though its pattern is still fine. TCBI is holding the 20 day EMA but it is struggling.
Retail: Some downgrades in the sector department stores and that hurt M, KSS and DDS though JWN fared just fine. BBY faded just a bit of its move. Apparel makers are still weak, e.g. NKE, LULU. UA is down but is in an interesting pattern.
Tech: Some of the recent leaders fell on the week, e.g. STX, WDC. MSFT continues to hang in its lateral range as does VMW.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ Stats: +0.83 points (+0.02%) to close at 5214.16 Volume: 1.573B (-9.11%)
Up Volume: 824.63M (+275.99M) Down Volume: 737.23M (-372.77M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.05 to 1 Previous Session: Decliners led 2.57 to 1
New Highs: 38 (+16) New Lows: 79 (-20)
S&P Stats: +0.43 points (+0.02%) to close at 2132.98 NYSE Volume: 808.1M (-7.85%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1 Previous Session: Decliners led 1.97 to 1
New Highs: 49 (+13) New Lows: 22 (-20)
DJ30 Stats: +39.44 points (+0.22%) to close at 18138.38
Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0. Lots of pessimism.
Bulls and Bears: Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears have gained.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.80% versus 1.746%. After a gap higher off the 200 day SMA Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower to a lower low on this selloff. Bonds have cracked.
Historical: 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656% versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.0966 versus 1.10536. The euro continued its weeklong tumble from the now failed August/September consolidation, closing in on the June and July lows.
Historical: 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus 1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177 versus 1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus 1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
USD/JPY: 104.201 versus 103.634. The dollar continues a trend upside, breaking through the early September high Friday. Not a huge blast off but a break of the last recovery high.
Historical: 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus 103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus 102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus 101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus 101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus 102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus 100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843
Oil: 50.35, -0.09. After surging to the June high early week, oil backed off, but it appears to be just a test of the rally, holding at the 10 day EMA Thursday with a nice doji, trading flat Friday. Higher inventories, higher rig counts could not deter oil's advance.
Gold: 1255.50, -2.10. Gold is still licking its wounds after the massive drop 2 weeks back. It broke the 200 day SMA and worked laterally just below that level all week. It may still try to bounce a bit first, but it still looks bearish. We want to enter GLD or other mining stocks (e.g. ABX) after a modest bounce in gold prices stalls and starts to roll back over.
MONDAY
Volatility strikes back. After going dormant for more than a week as the indices narrowed their ranges, suddenly the triple digit intraday moves erupted again. That failed test of the resistance Monday followed by the Tuesday sharp drop, and now the market is gyrating in the aftershocks again. Just aftershocks that will settle down again or was Tuesday simply another in a series of market quakes that started six Fridays back?
Earnings go full monty the coming week and we start to see just what Q3 really looked like itself and in the macro picture of the profits trend lower. The start of the season was woeful but Friday looked much better with a trio of good bank results from JPM, WFC, C. Heck, they should look good as they are still getting money for nothing. Doesn't everyone wish they could borrow from the Fed for next to nothing then use the money to buy guaranteed return assets thus ensuring a profit? You have to ask the question if they can why can't we? About the only thing the consumer has going for him is a strengthening dollar. That is nice but thus far it has not had an impact on rising oil prices, the usual effect of a higher dollar. But, I digress.
Earnings season will be in full swing and we were wanting a pre-earnings run. Not exactly a success at this stage. AAPL is more or less going to plan but the rest of the market is hesitant, and looking at the index patterns that is no mystery why. DJ30, SP500, SP400, RUTX have the rollover look, and NASDAQ is not far from that more homely appearance. Can SOX hold them up? More germane, can the Fed and the friend's of Janet (BOE, ECB) hold them up? My goodness, man, an election depends upon it! How can the US citizens decide to do what Wall Street wants them to do if there is market turmoil? How did we ever get by before there was a Fed?
We picked up some downside positions last week, a few upside, cut some plays that were problematic, but did not get too heavy into more buying as the indices fought between themselves as to what trend would take control. As of Friday that is still an open question though the downside looks stronger technically, but the upside has SOX and the Fed on its side.
As for this week we are looking at some more upside and downside and still have to be patient on getting really involved until one trend dominates. There could be a bounce off of the lows in the range as defined by that initial September selloff. A rebound back up to the top of the range is playable, but until something changes, each move has to be viewed as more of a trade on a bounce versus a new strong run. Moreover, with earnings cranking up to full speed plays are somewhat truncated anyway.
Thus we here are looking at the new week as one of more downside opportunity than upside after the late week action, though with this market it may take a bounce off support back up into the range to set the next downside. Overall, prognosis negative with the outlier of the Federal reserve and its band of central banks ready to buy equities.
It is always interesting to hear the explanations for why the market does one thing or another as if there is one story that catalyzes market moves. Oh sure sometimes a major story explodes and markets do likewise. Other times there is no major story so the speculation turns pretty creative. Last week it was the notion on CNBC that not only did a Clinton win look more certain but that it might lead to a sweep in the Congress as well. Thus the market was selling because it wanted gridlock. Of course another financial station argued that the more likely a Clinton victory appeared, the less likely a Congressional sweep would occur because those who crossed over to vote Clinton would still vote republican for the congressional races. It is no wonder I am reading stories about people suffering from election related ailments. It is enough to make your head hurt.
The key is going to be which direction DJ30, SP500, SP400 and RUTX take out of this 6 week lateral move. When they break higher or lower, that is the move we really get deeply involved with. Until then we make a few trades with a little bit of money. We can make some great money with them if we don't try for the long ball. If you do, this up and down action can grind up your accounts. Just play for singles (to use baseball terminology since it is the playoffs), take the gain, and be patient as we wait for the indices to make their definitive break.
It is also fall, so go out and enjoy some of the better weather that most are experiencing. Washington DC people may do what they can to louse it up, but why not the rest of us do what we can to keep it at least a nice place to be by being neighborly, friendly, and helpful. Oh yes, and use what they are doing in DC to make us money in the market!
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5213.33
Resistance: The 50 day EMA at 5221 5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high 5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high 5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016 5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support: 5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak 5100 from the April peak and early May peak 5042 is the March 2015 high 5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high 5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower 4999 is the October upper gap point 4980 is the June 2016 peak 4969 is the April 2016 recovery high 4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for NASDAQ. 4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower gap point 4916 is the mid-November 2015 low 4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low The 200 day SMA at 4900 4894 is the September 2015 closing high 4836 is the March 2016 peak 4815 is the December 2014 peak 4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday) 4774 is the January 2-15 high 4751 is the January 2015 lower high 4684 is the May 2016 test low 4637 is the February intraday high 4620 is the February 1 closing high 4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low. 4574 is the June 2015 low 4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows 4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2132.55
Resistance: 2135 is the May 2015 all-time high The 50 day SMA at 2165 2175 is the June 2016 high 2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support: 2130 is the June 2015 peak 2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high 2120 is the June 2016 peak 2119 is the February 2015 intraday high 2116 is the November 2015 high 2111 is the April 2016 recovery high 2104 is the December 2015 high 2094 is the December 2014 high 2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014 The 200 day SMA at 2068 2062 is the January 2015 lower high 2046 is the July 2015 closing low 2040 is the March 2015 closing low 2026 is the May 2016 low 2023 is the November 2015 low 2020 is the September 2015 intraday high 2011 is the September prior all-time high 1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak 1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,102.53
Resistance: 18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high 18,247 is the August 2016 low 18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower. 18,288 from March 2015 18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015 The 50 day SMA at 18,357 18,595 is the July 2016 peak 18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support: 18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range 18,016 is the June 2016 peak 17,978 is the November 2015 peak The 200 day SMA at 17,640 17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range. 17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high. 17,265 is a December 2015 closing low 17,245 is the November 2015 closing low 17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high 17,068 is the early July 2014 peak 17067 is the December 2014 low 17,063 is the June 2016 low 16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high 16,946 is the June 2014 peak 16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 12 - Wednesday MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): -6.0% actual versus 2.9% prior JOLTS - Job Openings, August (10:00): 5.443M actual versus 5.831M prior (revised from 5.871M) Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): -2.976M prior FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)
October 13 - Thursday Crude Inventories, 10/08 (12:00): -2.976M prior Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 246K actual versus 255K expected, 246K prior (revised from 249K) Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2046K actual versus 2062K prior (revised from 2058K) Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): 0.4% actual versus -0.6% prior (revised from -0.4%) Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% actual versus -0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%) Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 79 bcf actual versus 80 bcf prior Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): 4.900M actual versus -2.976M prior Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior
October 14 - Friday PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior
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