Replies to post #204565 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

The person to ask about AVIR is 'Daniel_Ward', who sometimes posts on this board.

I think there are better biotechs out there to own, but (as I said in the prior post), I follow the company only cursorily.

[Daniel_Ward]

RE: AVIR

Hey Bladerunner,

I would say AVIR was a "screaming buy" below $1.40 and would describe it as a "buy" at the current level of ~$1.70 (for full disclosure, I'm quick to ring the register with this recent biotech run, and I had a position personally initiated at ~$1.35 that I finished selling at ~$1.68). From my study of the Vapendavir trial and its design (endpoints, trial participant mix, etc.), I see a >50% of it succeeding. It's certainly nice that the company has three assets in P2 from an investor risk management perspective. Monetizing the Inavir/Relenza royalty streams seemed very logical to me. On the flip side, trial timelines seem to be consistently being pushed back, and some would certainly take the INHX blowout post-acqusition as a negative readthrough on a portion of the AVIR management team. In summary, I'd say it's a buy, but not describe it as a top buy at this point in time. Frankly though, I'm not finding much out there that looks extremely cheap.