Replies to post #74201 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[zzaatt]

.. Denner just dumb (doubtful) or is there some conflict of interest here regarding the performance of his fund?

1. Denner is definitely NOT dumb (we agree!)
2. "conflict of interest"... hmmmm, maybe, maybe not. I vote for the latter, since
it's the least complicated possibility, and there's no information as to any conflict.
3. You should consider the simplest explanation of all (and the most likely one), that
Denner thinks that Ariad has the potential to increase in value over time.

As a general rule (not targeted at you) one should dismiss notions that
have their origin in fantasy:

1. $15 is "brick wall" (I see it as a butter wall, and Ariad as a hot knife!)
2. The "big boys"/"the street"/"Mr.Market" doesn't like HB (and now presumably Denner).
3. "you can stick a fork in it"
4. Pona is "toxic" (I would call it side effects, which all medications have, and
which will be controlled).
etc.

jq says:

The problem is ponatinib is not going to extract much value either way at the moment,

The key here is "at the moment". Investing is looking forward!
In that general direction (FORWARD), things are looking real good!

Obviously INCY was more interested in EU operation rather than ponatinib,

Not obvious at all!!!!! It was an excellent deal for us, and I assume INCY executives and
scientists evaluated Ponatinib and felt that it had enough potential to warrant handing
Ariad $140 million, and more to come.

Again, sticking with simple explanations is usually the most likely one to be correct
(and I have Einstein's word on this: "Everything should be made as simple as possible,
but not simpler", and he's no dummy!)