few thoughts on the visium story
1. Visium is telling investors they will start getting money back July 1 so there could be a solid 2 weeks of selling.
2. I know from a source that there is not a significant lockup - one month. So redemptions that began in march per WSJ of 1.5B could have accelerated since then. That could be good news since the size of the fund and respective positions could be smaller than the 4.5B - 1.5B in redemption that we know about
3. Just an observarion - short interest in some smaller cap names i randomly checked had marked increase in late march. e.g. FGEN, SAGE, NBIX just on the first page of the portfolio holdings. This suggests back on March 7 when news they were being investigated came out people just started to broadly short their holdings. i.e the shenanigans started a while ago
3. Following up on being late to act, I have good reason to think many knew the fund was in deeper trouble before this week based on movement of portfolio managers and the like - so there could be accelerated shorting of late, say last 1-2 weeks. This could mean we start to see covering soon, especially when the volume is there for the low float stocks those of us on here care about.
4. A stock like FGEN only represents a small percentage of the visium portfolio, so it could be that back in march the company sold more liquid positions that were a larger proportion of the fund to access cash for teh initial round of redemption (and just let a position like FGEN go from 1.5% to 3%). OTOH it could also be that visium preferentially started selling lower float stocks when redemptions began because they knew getting out of such positions could take longer. Who the hell knows
anyway I'm sitting tight on my FGEN, thinking about selling calls and using that money to buy puts as a way of hedging movements in the next couple weeks, but if anyone else has thoughts or ideas i am all ears
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