Replies to post #200816 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…do you have an updated valuation model for ENTA?

I’m thinking of updating the model after the 1Q16 quarterly financials are released, when we’ll have a better idea whether ABBV’s $2B guidance for 2016 V-Pak sales is low, high, or about right. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

…do you have an updated valuation model for ENTA? I recall seeing one 2 years ago roughly. Based on price action, it seems market isn't giving much credit for 1st generation product w/ ABBV.

Quite so and rightly so, given the actual sales numbers.

My old valuation model for ENTA was much too optimistic on Viekira’s market share and it did not properly account for price erosion in the US market. The old model was so bad, it can’t be tweaked; I’ll do a new one from scratch after the phase-3 data for ABT-493/ABT-530 are released (#msg-122031014).