Replies to post #59519 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[roni]

As investors I think we should take the MSFT music initiative seriously. I think it and larger economic issues (consumer debt, slowing economy, gazillions in adjustable rate mortgages that are going to go up, etc...) have to be considered and should temper the enthusiasm of those of us who have made a bunch of bucks in AAPL and hope to make a bunch more in the next period of time.

I think it looks good for that, but it's not a lay-up or a slam dunk, in my opinion - OTOH, I do not consider it a Hail Mary pass either.

[tomm]

Microsoft Partners, You Been Zunked
Written By Om Malik

So Microsoft is going to get into the music device business - imitating the same “integrated experience” philosophy as Apple has successfully deployed to carve itself a big share of the portable music player and online music business. Devices, the store, and the whole nine yards. Hard drives, wifi, wireless discovery … it is as comprehensive feature set you can get using Microsoft Word’s copy & paste feature. Okay, I am being mean ! (Engadget has the details, so no point in repeating them.

If there is a sense of panic inside Infinite Loop, then Jobs’ army must also be feeling feel vindicated. Their way is the only way to make sense of the inherently complex online world. It might be the start of a long drawn out of war, except this time don’t find expect Apple to be the loser … just yet.

More on that some other day, but the real and perhaps the only story in the news is that Microsoft’s partners - from device makers to music services - just got double crossed by the company they choose to believe in. I like to call it Zun-ked (a tiny take off on Punked.)

Let me break this down: Zune - the devices, the platform, and the store/service - will compete with everyone from Apple (of course) to Creative Technologies, iRiver, Samsung, Archos, Rhapsody, Napster, Yahoo Music and anyone dumb http://gigaom.com/2006/07/22/zune/enough to buy into Microsoft’s visions of Urge, Media Player, PlayForSure etc.

Microsoft could argue that Zune would be unique and those others can still do business. But it is also a classic example of why Microsoft is lumbering bureaucratic morass wrapped in a can of conflicts. A modern day version of medieval fiefdoms, perhaps? Take for instance; Urge, which is built into Windows Vista, and is what I guess you could call an almost integrated experience. What happens to consumers when faced with the choice of Zune or Urge!!! Answer - iPod!

http://gigaom.com/2006/07/22/zune/

[langostino]

"undercut Apple's offerings"

do you think they'll ...

(a) sell relatively comparably specced/featured players, then undercut on price, or
(b) sell at roughly equivalent pricepoints, but "undercut" by loading in significantly more features, or
(c) selling at roughly equivalent pricepoints, but "undercut" by loading in both extra features AND additional services (i.e. free games, more free music, aggressive subscriptions, etc), or
(d) a combination of (a) and (b)/(c)?

or do you think they'll look at this as a multi-generational game, and use the first generation of whatever they toss out as a proving ground of sorts to test some of their market theories, accrue some manufacturing and supply chain relationships, extend their retail network, etc., with an eye toward going in full-bore a year or so later after they feel more confident in pouring in bigger CapEx?