Replies to post #261172 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jq1234]

>> WHERE are the posts (except mine, sunrise, tradero, golfho) that mentioned the possibility of the control arm outperforming from those you refer to in:


Maybe here: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120557596


>> And why would someone ANTICIPATE Docetaxel to outperform its stable performance since TWO DECADES now SPECIFICALLY in the SUNRISE trial. Isn't that weird as such?


No, because docetaxel 2nd line NSCLC has been changing with wide range over the years, never stayed the same, far beyond those numbers cited by this board. A tip: look at 95% CI instead in the future.


>> The High Speed train goes from Brussels to Paris in 1H 10 times a day during 10 years and then someone predict that on data X hour Y it will take TWO hours. Wouldn't you think that to make such statement one could be part of creating the delay or just made a big time lucky guess?


Yeah, right, clinical trial is like high speed train. That's why you don't know what you are talking about!

[Carboat]

Here you go:

Many things can and do go "wrong" in trials. In this case the risks include:
...
4) Always risk of healthy control group

237819

To which you reasonably replied:

That IS a REAL risk. In pancreatic we saw what the impact of that may be. However, and lets suppose for a moment that no hanky-panky happened with pancreatic, then it had a LIMITED number of patients compared to SUNRISE. In SUNRISE with 582 patients the risk of bias of the dataset is MUCH smaller. And more, since we are dealing with ECOG 0 and 1 patients it will in all cases weight MUCH LESS in the end results because these patients have time to let Bavi work. The Pancreatic patients could easily pass BEFORE Bavi's latency kept it from doing good work. The curves of the trials showed that latency. So there is a chance that Bavi with ECOG 1 patients performs better then DOCE alone on ECOG 0. But OK, that last statement is speculation on my behalf so I give you that.