Apart from the end of seasonal trade, the biggest reason to sell refiner holdings this summer is the increasing likelihood of recession in 2017 and more so in 2018, Credit Suisse says, also expressing concern about deterioration of diesel margins.
Credit Suisse expects tight butane blending spreads and stock specific maintenance will have a negative impact on the already weak performance of U.S. independent refiners in 2016.
The firm downgrades "sector bellwether" Valero Energy (VLO -2.5%), Alon USA Partners (ALDW -1.3%), Northern Tier Energy (NTI -0.8%) to Neutral from Outperform and Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT -2.9%) to Underperform from Outperform.