north, the combined control arm was 7.4 months in the PII I think and Bavi expectations for SUNRISE PIII was +2 months above the expectations of SUNRISEs control arm.
Since the Docetaxel control arm studies for comparable stage (IIIb and IV) and comparable ECOG 0 and 1 show maximum 10.4 months, 9.9 for Herbst et at 2010 and 9.4 for Opdivo alone vs Docetaxel alone we assume that 10 months would be the base of SUNRISEs expectation.
However, CEO King in answer to a Q&A at a CC to a question in what extend PPHM feared that the control arm might outperform (as just happened to several other companies according the analyst) CEO King said they applied a margin to the control arm expectation.
So if we assume that the SUNRISE control arm expectations where 10+2=12 Months and hence Bavi expectations where 14 months and since we know Bavi performed as expected (per PR and conference call confirmation) the difference between the combined arm of 7.4 and Bavi in SUNRISE is about 6.6 months or near 100% improvement.
That means this is BETTER then in the PII where it was only (well only - LOL) 60%. The 40% better performance of Bavituximab in SUNRISE would have to be explained by the ECOG difference because the STAGE was the same for both trials.
Personally I do not believe that the amount of ECOG 2 patients can make up for a 40% difference. So the Bavi arm might actually either have SUPER performed or profited in a lesser extend from the same outperforming syndrome as did the Docetaxel arm.
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