Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 02/26 2016 EOD
Today "opened high" at $1.18, moved quickly to $1.20 and shortly went into a slow flat, drop, flat, drop, ... pattern until range became $1.16/7 from 10:43, with a few minutes ranging up to $1.18 at 10:52, 10:58 and 11:05/:06, ... This was the third consecutive day that $1.15/6 seemed contested and held. As with prior days, an apparent weakness development was interrupted by a larger volume one-minute move, but this time only 10.2K at 12:10, that started a multiple-minute step up on little volume, hitting $1.22 at 12:17. As before, range remained somewhat elevated at $1.19/22, but for only a few minutes before higher volume (~24K) moved $1.22->$1.16 in three minutes. The rest of the day had predominately three steps: a long $1.17/9 flat period through 14:46 and another short $1.17/8 flat through 15:25 and then a step down to $1.15 through 15:45 and finished $1.15/7 with a close at $1.17.
Also similar to yesterday, there were some severe b/a imbalances (which I've omitted today because of the load it imposes on me and you) that appeared designed to force buyers to hit a higher offer. It worked a couple times but, unlike yesterday, price couldn't stay elevated even 10 minutes. Also different is that the move up had much smaller volume than the move down just a few minutes later.
Volume rose about 61% (including two AH trades, one suspicious) on a down day and on a Friday - not a good sign.
There were no pre-market trades.
The day opened with a 1,015 share sell at $1.18 and next traded 134 shares for $1.20 at 9:32. 9:34 did 1K at $1.20 but b/a was unchanged, meaning b/a was not being hit but trades were inter/intra-broker or intra-MM. 9:39 did 200 $1.20, 100 $1.18. 9:42 did 100 $1.20.
Looking similar to early yesterday, but for a bit more volume and compression via higher low and lower high, so far.
Finally 9:49 started seeing somewhat regular trading, mostly low volume and some no-volume minutes, $1.18/$1.20, mostly at $1.18 and $1.18xx. At 10:03 volume switched to mostly no-volume and some low-volume minutes. The period ended at 10:15 with the last two minutes doing ~2.7K $1.19->$1.18. 10_16-11:05 began with 1.2K $1.18->$1.17 and started no/low-volume $1.17. At 10:26 trading went no/low-volume $1.165x/$1.17. 10:41 range became $1.16/7 on ~1.4K. The no/low-volume was interrupted by 10:49's ~11.4K $1.17 and then returned to the no/low-volume scenario and became no/low-volume $1.16/8 on 1K at 10:52. The period ended at $1.18 on 4.4K. 11:06-12:04 did a two-minute 7.9K $1.18->$1.16 move and then mostly no and some low-volume $1.16/7, interrupted by 10.1K $1.16/7 at 11:18 and 10.3K $1.16 at 11:29. There were no more trades until 11:36 when it went back to no/low-volume trading. At ~12:00 b/a of $1.16/7 ratio went to 6.8K/4.8K and at ~12:04 went ~20K/4.8k. That seemed a catalyst as the period ended there at $1.17 when ... 12:05-12:17, after a no-trades four minutes, did a two-minute 10.3K move $1.16->$1.20 and low/no-volume $1.20/1 began. The period ended at $1.22. 12:18-14:46, after a no-trade two-minutes, did a three-minute ~28.3K $1.22->$1.16 drop and there were no more trades until 12:34 began no/low-volume $1.17/8, went $1.17/9 beginning at 12:58, went $1.18/9 at 13:15, spread to $1.17/9 at 14:13, and ended at $1.17/9. 14:47-15:25 began with 300 shares $1.17/8 and began low/medium $1.17/8, interrupted by 14:54's ~12.8K $1.17 and 14:56's 5K $1.18, and ended at $1.17. 15:26-15:41 began with 5.6K $1.16, next did ~1.1K $1.17 and began no/low-volume $1.17, interrupted by 22.4K 13:36/:39 and ended at $1.17 15:42-16:00, after a no-trades three minutes, did 100 shares $1.15 to start no/low-volume $1.15/7 with a b/a ~21.6:1 $1.15/7 into the normal EOD volatility, which didn't materialize in volume, and ended the period and day with a 632 share buy for $1.17.
TFH ALERT! There were two AH trades: 16:03 did 16,546 unknown for $1.16 (nothing suspicious about this one IMO); 19:18, a very late and suspicious buy of 2.5K at $1.23, above the intra-day high of $1.22 and the day's close at $1.17! My TFH says this is an attempt to manipulate, again, for a higher price, as my TFH suspects has been going on for a long time off and on.
Moreover, any AH trades on a Friday are rare, much less two. One shortly after close is less rare than one just before end of AH trading. These latter ones, seldom seen on Friday's, often suggest some early action the following trading day.
Another thought is that the ATM operated by Cowan and Co. is a relatively new factor for us. I'm sure they know how to manipulate and have the wherewithal to risk $3,075.00 to garner the fees from $CPST for providing this service. May not be them though. Could be someone with a large position trying to slowly exit at the highest possible price? Again, a small additional outlay for a potentially big gain if they can suck the bids up higher throughout the day(s) needed, as has been happening these last several days.
Before you tag me a conspiracy theorist, consider these last few days have seen an abnormally large number of occurrences with outrageous bid/ask quantity imbalances to the bid side. Regardless of those the vast majority of the trades often just keep hitting the bids, usually 100 shares at a pop for long periods, until the bids at that price are exhausted. Often no change in the bid volume is seen while this is occurring.
At some point we'll see a brief high-volume period that takes out a large volume of offers and moves price up a lot, e.g. a recent $1.16->$1.20 that got range up as high as $1.23 in a few following minutes.
Supply and demand market forces at work? I suspect not.
Regarding the AH trades, my rational side points out that usually these are one or two-hundred share trades. Maybe our lower price range accounts for the larger size though?
We'll never know.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 5 4K+) totaling 48,434, 20.96% of day's volume, with a $1.1635 VWAP. Excluding the 16,546 AH unknown trade, the percentage of day's vol would be 14.86% and VWAP would be $1.1653.Ending Period Period Period Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High Dollar Val. VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:15 14617 $1.1601 $1.2000 $17,232.81 $1.1790 6.32% 48.42%
11:05 28424 $1.1600 $1.1810 $33,308.15 $1.1718 12.30% 71.52% Incl 10:49 $1.1700 4,294 $1.1699 4,294
12:04 41302 $1.1600 $1.1800 $48,159.32 $1.1660 17.87% 56.06%
12:17 12100 $1.1600 $1.2200 $14,338.97 $1.1850 5.24% 60.03%
14:46 49600 $1.1600 $1.2200 $58,513.07 $1.1797 21.46% 54.79% Incl 12:22 $1.1700 5,000
15:25 30825 $1.1700 $1.1800 $36,111.86 $1.1715 13.34% 44.72%
15:41 29900 $1.1600 $1.1700 $34,779.36 $1.1632 12.94% 43.39% Incl 15:26 $1.1601 5,000 15:39 $1.1680 4,300
15:37 $1.1600 4,500 4,500
16:00 4015 $1.1500 $1.1700 $4,671.62 $1.1635 1.74% 43.36%
19:18 19046 $1.1600 $1.2300 $22,268.36 $1.1692 8.24% 42.96% Incl 16:03 $1.1600 16,546
On the traditional TA front, movements were: __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.84% -0.86% -0.81% -0.85% 61.25%
Prior 6.25% 9.43% 0.00% -1.67% -64.85%
On my minimal chart price bottomed again on the $1.15/6 support, but this time 1 cent lower at $1.15, and had a lower high, on rising volume (not a good sign). The only good thing about this is, again, it suggests I have a handle on things as yesterday's { ... Given this I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower range, near-term, accompanied by rising volume } is satisfied. Oh! One more good thing - we didn't push the lower Bollinger limit today. But it did continue to drop, which is not so good.
On my one-year chart the 10 and 20-day SMAs, $1.2995 and $1.3514 ($1.3165 and $1.3477 yesterday), continued the fall began four days past. The 50-day SMA stopped falling (thanks to the late AH trade - it was still falling at $1.3085 prior to the suspicious $1.23 AH trade). It's $1.3099 ($1.3093 yesterday). The 10-day has crossed below the 50-day and the 20-day won't be far behind unless we get a quick and "large" reversal. Getting one large enough seems unlikely.
The oscillators I watch, which were mixed yesterday, all weakened but for full stochastic. None are in oversold yet but all are below neutral. It looks like a couple may get into oversold Monday.
N.B. The Bollinger settings I use are based on close and the software, Power ETrade Pro charts, can't tell the difference between "close" and "current" until the next day. So tomorrow the prior readings will likely be different from the below.
Before the late AH $1.23 trade the 13-period Bollinger limits were $1.0957 and $1.5251. Inclusive of it we get $1.1133 and $1.5183 respectively ($1.1281 and $1.5219 yesterday). They continue diverging, due to the lower limit's faster decline, and dragging the mid-point lower.
All in, no positives here. Even the continued ... "observed abnormal inter/intra-day and post-day behaviors" (how's that for trying to appear somewhat rational? ;-) ) haven't been able to completely stop the slow degradation of price and volume that was expected to follow what I judged to be a dead-cat bounce on 2/24. Check the VWAP, volumes and buy percentage combinations below for the last few days.
With the volume rising on a weaker day, and it being a Friday which often has lower volume, the likelihood seems to be more weakness near-term.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, so there's some normalcy present. The short percentage made a big move from well above my preferred range (needs re-check) to well below it. As expected, the buy percentage fell out of yesterday's "stratospheric" level, adding weight, I think, to my dead-cat bounce call.
The spread continues to be too wide even if we use the intra-day high of $1.22, yielding a 6.09% spread. As mentioned in the past, low volume can be more volatile, leading to wide spreads. Adding in the suspected manipulation attempts increases the chances and and degree of the spread. Regardless, combined with being weak on volume, buy percentage and short percentage and, I think, making a down leg in spite of the apparent attempts at price support, I believe this adds to the likelihood of continued near-term weakness.
VWAP movements, up on reduced volume yesterday and down in increased volume today, continue the general trend of down seen for seven of the last eight days.
All in, nothing suggests, to me, a near-term reversal to make a move up.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated as such.
Bill
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