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Insight1

02/14/16 1:40 PM

#77336 RE: louieforpar #77332

I'm not going to sit here and give you the courses you need on language and economics, but the problem here is you're ignoring the structure of the statement and the "based on" qualifier. You conveniently quote the first line, while ignoring the rest of sentence that changes the meaning of the whole thing. You're either ignorant, or you think others on this board are, and thus get away with this crap.

He's effectively saying "based on our modeling, which includes these factors, this asset is worth 80-100 million dollars".

The factors they used in their model were pretty much all speculative and forward looking which, as a corollary, makes the conclusion derived from said model speculative.

It really isn't complicated. Contracts are inherently speculative. For example: football team X signs player Y to a contract. What are they saying? "Over the life of the contract, this player is worth Z dollars per year for A years, OR MORE". That signing is inherently speculative, the player could get hurt, he could blow his hand off with some fireworks, or he could get arrested for murder. Your model says he is worth Z (or more), but does it always work out that way? Nope.

I could buy my house for whatever, and say "based on these factors it is worth z". Do you understand the concepts of market pressures and willingness to pay? Just because you buy something for X doesn't mean someone else won't pay Z for it. Just because someone sells for X doesn't mean it isn't worth Z in different market conditions....