2015-16 is shaping up to deliver a rollercoaster from strong El Niño to La Niña
.. if you really need water and can't get enough from Canada ..
August 17, 2015 4.27pm EDT
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What is in store?
In terms of intensity and the growth rate up to July, the 2015 El Niño is second only to corresponding time of the 1997 event, and looks set to outpower the 1982 event. However, the eventual intensity of the 2015 El Niño is still hard to predict. What seems more certain is a La Niña in 2016.
For Australia, the extent and strength of the impact of the 2015 El Niño to a large extent depends on whether there is a concurrent positive Indian Ocean Dipole. In 2014, there was no positive Indian Ocean Dipole. To date, most models are predicting a positive dipole this year, raising the prospect of a strong El Niño preceded by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and followed by a La Niña event – exactly as occurred in 1982-84 and 1997-99.
IMAGE: The pattern of Pacific Ocean temperatures during the last strong El Nino event in 1997. NOAA
For Australia, the impacts of this sequence could be significant, as attested by the devastating Ash Wednesday bushfire in 1983 over southern Australia and the floods that hit the country’s northeast in early 1984.
This swing between opposite extremes from one year to the next could have globally damaging consequences too. On the far side of the Pacific, California may get a break from its a prolonged drought, although this hopefully won’t be in the form of intense storms and flooding.
El Niño and La Niña events influence the climate of Australia. El Niño events are often associated with drier than normal conditions across eastern and northern Australia, while La Niña events are associated with wetter than normal conditions across eastern and northern Australia. This page describes a case by case analysis of La Niña events since 1900. Click on the tabs to read about particular years.
The 2010–12 La Niña event consisted of two peaks over successive summers; the 2010–11 peak was one of the strongest on record, comparable in strength with the events of 1917–18, 1955–56 and 1975–76. In October and December 2010, and February and March 2011, monthly Southern Oscillation Index values were the highest on record (records commenced in 1876). The 2011–12 peak was weaker, but still of moderate strength, in both atmospheric and oceanic indicators.
2010 and 2011 were the third-wettest and second-wettest calendar years on record for Australia, with 703 mm and 708 mm respectively, both well above the long-term average of 465 mm. Combined, the two events yielded Australia's wettest 24-month period on record (April 2010 to March 2012 .. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/201011/201004-201203.gif , Figure 1), and wettest two-calendar-year period (2010–2012), with 1411 mm of rainfall, topping the previous record of 1407 mm in 1973–1974. .. heaps more .. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/lnlist/
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