Replies to post #199304 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

CLLS

At this moment in time, it's batting 1000. One child was treated (on a compassionate use basis prior to any clinical trial being started)resulting in a complete disease remission. Too soon IMO to call it a complete cure, but it sure is looking good.

The CLLS risk isn't GVHD, since that is mediated primarily by one thing - and hence easily edited out. The risk is what they have to do to prevent HVG from wiping out the treatment. In order to prevent that they have to lympho deplete much more significantly and for much longer than auto CART. Which is risky from an infection pov.

So in aggregate they are likely to have either lesser efficacy (because HVG wipes out their treatment) or high mortality from infection. But I'd suggest that one patient is much less likely to show this because they will get special care which wouldn't show up in a larger trial, much less if SOC.

[xavierprivas]

I was using Cellectis as an example of real threat to Kite, Juno
if (big if) Cellectis works. I don't want to make it look like a
recommendation for Cellectis.

I don't have any position in Kite, Juno either because of their valuation and
it is not clear that it will work in solid tumor. Hematologic cancer
is a very competitive market.

As for Cellectis, there is no data initially so I pass. After that one
case was published, the stock jumped so I decided to pass.

My method of investing is to look for real positive data then wait until
price drops for no good reason. Like now I loaded on FGEN
(thanks to biomaven) and EGRX (thanks to Dew).

In my estimate EGRX can turn a profit this year rare for a biotech and
nothing has changed since the stock peaked in Dec around $105. Below
$70 yesterday, quite a bargain.

The market is not very rational or efficient (just like Dew signature)