Since the August-November uptrend rallied 249 points, and the correction, since then, has already declined 198 points, it is getting close to a full retracement.
A full retracement at this stage of the bull market, in OEW terms, would probably suggest Primary Vended with a fifth wave failure at SPX 2116/2104, and a bear market is now underway.
Should the market drop another 3%, it dropped 6% this week, the bull market is probably over.
The stock market usually loses, during a Cycle wave [2] bear market, 45% to 50% of its value.
So the bear market could be quite severe.
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: bull market
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V should carry the market to All time New Highs.
* Note - The October 2015 Bottom, resembles 1998 and 2011 Bottoms
LONG TERM: bull market
MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend
* Primary Waves I and II - completed in 2011
* Primary Waves III and IV - completed in 2015
* Primary Wave V should carry the market to All time New Highs.