Why would more patients be at risk compared with placebo group?
"At risk" means the patients who have not yet evented in the arm.
Let us suppose that 1 year from now most of the doce patients have unfortunately evented, while many are still alive on the Bavi arm. Say 100 alive on Bavi vs 20 on doce.
That is what I mean when I say more are at risk.
So at that point you will be seeing more events from the 100 in the Bavi arm even with Bavi being truly effective,
Nothing at all negative in what I am saying here, Just correcting sunstar's math. In the long run the total events will certainly be 1:1.
Nothing is certain but death and taxes.
BTW: The number that best states what sunstar implies is the HR ratio. This is the likelyhood of eventing and any given point in time. An HR of 0.5 would be a huge win. About .75 would be a "win" (not doing any numbers here on what actually is stat sig).
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