The 2:1 ratio I’m expecting to see in the first look-in, is a derivative of the MOS data that we saw in the phase2 NSCLC trial. The MOS of the Doce arm was 5.6 months, just short of 6 months. The Bavi arm MOS was 11.7, just short of 12 months.
If Doce events were occurring at a mean of 6 months (rounded), and Bavi events were occurring at a mean of 12 months (rounded), a look-in on that trial, at some point, should have seen approximately 2 Doce events for each Bavi event. The Bavi MOS was twice that of the Doce MOS. That’s where my 2:1 derivative comes from.
With the healthier ECOG that is designed into SUNRISE phase3, we might look for a similar ratio of Bavi over Doce, but with the Doce MOS being more like 10 months, Reference: 9.9 months (Herbst et al 2010).
With this healthier ECOG group of patients in SUNRISE, and if the Bavi/Doce ratio of 2:1 holds, we could see survival data more like a Doce MOS of 10 months and Bavi survival stretching out to 20 months MOS.
By the way, Bavi’s target is PS, and it is global and ubiquitous (as in 100%) on cancer tumors.
Opdivo’s target is limited to a very minor percentage of cancer cells.
Let’s not confuse the cat!
IMO
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