Replies to post #30888 on Biotech Values

[ThomasS]

VRTX: If you want to use that particular arguement, don't you also have to look at other deals post-NVS? IDIX, ANDS, etc.
I see many huge post-deal drops, for a myriad of reasons over various lengths of time. What if VRTX rises $5 next week?

The short answer to your $3 question is that you may be a great investor on the short-side.

I've seen analyst remarks which were mostly glowing re the VRTX deal.

( Your seemingly anti-VRTX stance makes posters believe that you favor IDIX at the expense of VRTX; forgive me if this is not the case)

[rkrw]

<<VRTX – Praveen, if this was such an extraordinarily great deal for VRTX, as you and rkrw assert, why is post-deal share price $3 below where I shorted VRTX following their data release at EASL in April>>>

What does your short sale have to do with the deal other than being as flimsy a point as I've ever seen from you? Only bios that immediately trade for all time highs did the best business development they could? The stocks that move the most did the best? If the stock doesn't go up that means they did a bad deal?

If things are so hunky dory for idix and the nvs deal was the greatest, why is their stock down 35% since they ipo'd? Why have the only people to make money been the private shareholders who engineered the nvs deal? I think Thomas nailed it with his analysis of this futile debate.

imo, if you like risk averse, then favor the idix deal. It was a great deal. If you want to take risk, don't want your upside capped and want the chance for a multiple of $250M in excess cash flow (vs the 50/50 ww) for every $1B in sales, then favor the vertex deal.