Don, I try to keep it as simple as possible. What I can chart that gives me a short term predictable indicators of future market action is all right here. As far as the put to call ratio it is the options put to call ratio or $CPC that I follow. Other put to call ratios would need a lot more study on my part to determine any usefulness.
Put/Call Ratio - TRIN and Put/Call Ratio/Vix Ratio - Effect on the SOX and SMH:
There is a seemingly direct effect seen with the rise of the put to call above 1.0 on the SOX and SMH. Also the TRIN when it rises above 1.5 on a five day moving average. Perhaps it does not work immediately but it shows up more often than not and both indicators have generated buy signals. Therefore the SOX and SMH are likely to move higher until these indicators fall. Low extremes for the put to call ratio are found with closes below 0.50. On the TRIN when we see the 5 day moving average below 0.85. At that time we would have sell signals: > > > >
And lets not forget the effect of the VIX on the whole affair. Note the 21 day moving average is still moving higher. Until it turns lower the SOX can run higher. This might not happen until the SOX has reached an RSI of nearly 70 and has penetrated its upper Bollinger Band:
>
These charts should work well with any number of technology stocks and indices to help traders determine potential changes in short term trading directions for said stocks and indices.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:CSCO - News) officials on Wednesday said comments attributed to Chief Executive John Chambers about an imminent recovery in the technology sector were misinterpreted by a Dutch newspaper.
Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad quoted Chambers as saying at a meeting with European reporters in San Jose on Monday that corporate spending on information technology would recover in the next two to four months.
But Cisco spokeswoman Robyn Jenkins-Blum said Chambers actually said companies would start spending on information technology two to four months after their own businesses turn around.
"There is nothing new in what John has been saying the last several quarters," Jenkins-Blum told Reuters.
No other reporters at the meeting that she knows of had written anything yet about what was said, she added.
The Dutch paper had no immediate comment.
The newspaper report helped boost U.S. technology stocks, which then eased after Cisco said the report was inaccurate.
Cisco, the world's largest maker of equipment that directs Internet traffic, is viewed as key benchmark for the health of U.S. corporations because of its wide customers base. Chambers comments often drive markets up or down by themselves.
"With the market rally as stretched as it is, you have portfolio managers, traders ... looking for any positive news," said Justin McNichols, a portfolio manager with Osborne Partners Capital Management, a San Francisco asset management firm that owns Cisco shares.
Cisco's stock on Wednesday initially rose to its highest since January 2002 -- hitting $19.55 -- before giving back much of the gain. It was up 24 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $18.97 in heavy afternoon trading on the Nasdaq.
According to Jenkins-Blum, Chambers said the timing of a recovery was unknown, but it would start with small- to medium-size businesses, followed by some large corporate customers and then telephone companies two to six quarters after the corporations.
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