Most things exist on a sliding scale. UDW offshore is expensive and a few of those projects have been shelved recently, Canadian oil sands project was shelved, Arctic exploration was shelved. Central and South America have promising shallow-water offshore business if they can figure out their business. We can't rely on this, though.
Theoretically I think shallow-water drilling is competitive with light-tight oil and we will start to see that as onshore production drops and offshore production increases at a decreased ratio.