we may still get this silly "end of rate hikes" rally
Could be. My own map, such as it is, includes some follow through for a couple of days, taking the major indexes back to about their 50smas and recent resistance levels. In other words, about NDX 1610 to 1635. Then a resumption of the down trend.
When I wrote that post, I thought we were going to get back to those resistance levels by now, but it's taken longer to get a relief rally going than I thought.
I've read studies that show the market often rallies between the last and next to last rate hikes in a cycle. If we get a hike in August and that's the last one for this cycle, then July would be a positive month according to that pattern.
The pattern I mentioned in the post you referenced shows that in 10 out of the last 12 hike cycles, the market has sold off significantly after the last hike (August?). So if August is the last hike, a rally in July followed by a protracted sell-off after the August meeting would be consistent with both patterns.
I agree we're likely to have an excellent shorting opportunity soon, but if we get one, whether it's a few trading days from now or a month from now, we'll have to see. I'm still as long as I can be, and have been since June 8, but I'm getting close to ringing the register or at least scaling back.
Today we got the biggest white candle on the comp we've seen in a long time, but I would point out that the last two big white candles (June 1 and June 15) were sold pretty hard right away.
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