OT Stats: You're right on the 2%. Talk about something completely academic at this point. I used Excel to calculate the probability and typed in a 1 in the binomdist function when I should have typed in a 0, as in what is the chance that 0 out of 6 days end down with the probability of a down day being 52%. The probability of only 1 day being down is 8%.
So, once again, the market defies the odds!
I'm going to do some more analysis of the VXN. The 9-day EMA crossed the 13-day to the upside today and I'm curious what that could portend. Once again, we overreacted to the upside relative to the fear in the options markets. I wonder who will turn out to be right on this?
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