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augieboo

07/08/03 3:18 PM

#127687 RE: Joe Stocks #127642

But Joe, that's just it. Neither you nor I know what the circumstances are surrounding the movements of the markets. All we know is that we are seeing things we are not used to seeing. But to go from that to saying that Greenie is controlling everything is such a leap that it cannot be described as a leap of logic, but only a leap of faith, IMDO.

I don't doubt that there are many posters on this thread who have watched the markets for much longer than I have, and therefore know more about their ups and downs than I do. But, that does not mean that they know everything there is to know about the ups and downs of the market.

Because I am green enough to know that I don't know much, I have been doing a lot of research -- research that goes much farther back than the experience of the very most seasoned citizens of this thread. After spending quite a bit of time, as well as a bit of money, I have compiled a bunch of data which goes back as far as the 1920s. What I have found is, I think, both interesting and informative.

Many of the excesses we are seeing right now, e.g., the ridiculously high sentiment numbers, the supposedly record summation index levels, the massively strong internals, etc., are standard characteristics of the periods following the numerical bottoms of many bear markets and the beginnings of the first cyclical bull markets which followed. (Note that I am very careful to say the numerical bottoms of bear markets, not the ends.)

So, since I have pretty solid evidence that what is really going on is nothing more than the beginning of a cyclical bull market within a longggg secular bear market, and since those who claim that AG is manipulating the market on a regular basis offer no evidence other than the fact that the fed is undeniably, (and quite publicly), keeping the economy very liquid, I must reject the conspiracy theories out of hand.