I did end up staying short. I had an entry at $30.97 at EOD July 2nd with a 3% SL on a closing basis and by my calculations, since the last 5 days after a 4%+ up day on the NDX have been up, while the historical rate of up days has only been 52% since 1990 of up days after 4%+ rises, we only have about an 8% chance of getting another up day this time.
Of course, the market likes to do what it likes to do, so I could end up eating the 3% in any event.
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