Replies to post #296 on Sector Investing

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COHU, CYMI, DPMI, EGLS, FSII, HELX, - 6 Month Daily Charts:

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Don Wennerstrom put the following tables together I copied his text and tables here:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19269316

Michael, You ask a lot of good questions - let me make a couple of comments and then I will finish off with a table with 2 different sorts.

First of all, in general, the stocks within the Group tend to move up and down together. The weak, usually smaller stocks, move the least amount, the next is the Generals in the Group that move well to the upside, but are limited because of their size, and the final group is the "medium size" stocks with good technology that really move, both on the upside and downside I might add.

I put the following table together, portions of which I have posted several times before to illustrate the point. The first 3 columns in the table show the performance of the Group from the lows set on 10/8/98 and their respective high prices set in 2000. Two stocks at the top jump out at you, PHTN with a 3917 percent gain and LTXX with a 3736 percent gain. TER, AMAT, NVLS and KLAC, the 4 stocks in the Group that are part of the SOX were up 1307, 928, 858, and 791 percent respectively. Tremendous performance but pretty puny compared to PHTN and LTXX.

Now lets go to the last 3 columns. Note that while the sort is not in the last column, since the low set on 10/9/02 and comparing to last Friday's close, PHTN and LTXX are clearly in 1st place again with gains of 1268 and 1065 percent respectively. Based on past performance during the 98 to 00 runup, and the fact that they are again in 1st place now during the most recent runup, I would think they may very well wind up at the top again at the end of this bubble. Also, by the way, we are well on our way to a new bubble top as the percentage gains since October show - still have a ways to go, but now the Group is gaining a full head of steam. Like Needham said this morning as reported by Briefing.com

<With cycle-to-cycle growth, semiconductor equipment stocks could reasonably be expected to yield returns of 50%to 100% or more over the next 18 to 24 months.>

Anyway, here is the table, first sorted by the 3rd column and then sorted by the last column.

 
 -		2000 
 -     10/08/98 HIGHEST	       10/9/02 08/29/03 
 -	CLOSE	CLOSE  PERCENT	CLOSE	CLOSE  PERCENT 
 SYMBOL	PRICE	PRICE  CHANGE	PRICE	PRICE  CHANGE 
 PHTN	 2.25	90.38	3917	 2.38	32.57	1268 
 LTXX	 1.31	50.25	3736	 1.28	14.91	1065 
 ASYT	 3.13	63.88	1941	 3.10	14.00	 352 
 LRCX	 2.93	55.56	1796	 3.30	25.61	 675 
 MTSN	 2.75	49.13	1687	 2.75	6.00	 118 
 CMOS	 5.00	74.59	1392	 5.03	11.49	 128 
 TER*	 7.82  110.00	1307	 9.00	17.83	  98 
 ASML	 4.38	50.05	1043	 4.54	15.77	 247 
 BRKS	 8.38	89.69	 970	 8.63	24.45	 183 
 AMAT*	 5.59	57.44	 928	11.82	21.63	  83 
 CYMI	 6.50	65.25	 904	 8.00	45.77	 472 
 NVLS*	 7.30	69.94	 858	 7.69	39.96	 420 
 HELX	 7.88	75.38	 857	 8.63	18.36	 113 
 SMTL	 2.57	23.69	 822	 2.50	 8.91	 256 
 KLAC*	10.94	97.44	 791	12.50	59.45	 376 
 COHU	 6.75	59.50	 781	 7.69	22.10	 187 
 KLIC	 5.19	43.00	 729	 5.78	11.74	 103 
 WFR	 3.63	23.75	 554	 3.50	12.98	 271 
 EGLS	 7.94	43.44	 447	 9.25	 2.44	 -74 
 FSII	 4.25	23.13	 444	 4.63	 4.40	  -5 
 VECO	21.63  115.50	 434	24.75	21.35	 -14 
 ATMI	11.50	60.00	 422	11.38	27.95	 146 
 PLAB	 9.50	45.13	 375	11.00	24.28	 121 
 DPMI	17.88	78.81	 341	19.31	25.61	  33 
 UTEK	13.56	23.50	  73	15.38	29.32	  91 
 TOTALS 180.56 1534.31	 750   203.81  538.88	 164 
 SOX-X  189.90 1332.73	 602   200.80  456.06	 127 
 COMPQX1419.12 5048.85	 256  1492.49 1810.45	  21 
 * STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX 
  
 -		 2000 
 -     10/08/98 HIGHEST	       10/9/02  8/29/03 
 -	CLOSE	CLOSE  PERCENT	CLOSE	CLOSE  PERCENT 
 SYMBOL	PRICE	PRICE  CHANGE	PRICE	PRICE  CHANGE 
 PHTN	 2.25	90.38	3917	 2.38	32.57	1268 
 LTXX	 1.31	50.25	3736	 1.28	14.91	1065 
 LRCX	 2.93	55.56	1796	 3.30	25.61	 675 
 CYMI	 6.50	65.25	 904	 8.00	45.77	 472 
 NVLS*	 7.30	69.94	 858	 7.69	39.96	 420 
 KLAC*	10.94	97.44	 791	12.50	59.45	 376 
 ASYT	 3.13	63.88	1941	 3.10	14.00	 352 
 WFR	 3.63	23.75	 554	 3.50	12.98	 271 
 SMTL	 2.57	23.69	 822	 2.50	 8.91	 256 
 ASML	 4.38	50.05	1043	 4.54	15.77	 247 
 COHU	 6.75	59.50	 781	 7.69	22.10	 187 
 BRKS	 8.38	89.69	 970	 8.63	24.45	 183 
 ATMI	11.50	60.00	 422	11.38	27.95	 146 
 CMOS	 5.00	74.59	1392	 5.03	11.49	 128 
 PLAB	 9.50	45.13	 375	11.00	24.28	 121 
 MTSN	 2.75	49.13	1687	 2.75	 6.00	 118 
 HELX	 7.88	75.38	 857	 8.63	18.36	 113 
 KLIC	 5.19	43.00	 729	 5.78	11.74	 103 
 TER*	 7.82  110.00	1307	 9.00	17.83	  98 
 UTEK	13.56	23.50	  73	15.38	29.32	  91 
 AMAT*	 5.59	57.44	 928	11.82	21.63	  83 
 DPMI	17.88	78.81	 341	19.31	25.61	  33 
 FSII	 4.25	23.13	 444	 4.63	 4.40	  -5 
 VECO	21.63  115.50	 434	24.75	21.35	 -14 
 EGLS	 7.94	43.44	 447	 9.25	 2.44	 -74 
 TOTALS 180.56 1538.43	 752   203.81  538.88	 164 
 SOX-X  189.90 1332.73	 602   200.80  456.06	 127 
 COMPQX1419.12 5048.85	 256  1492.49 1810.45	  21

* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX

Click on this link to see charts of the Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Stocks:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1177664

RtS