Replies to post #236152 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[BioBS2012]

But lets assume AF has only been talking about PIII's, because if it would be extended to PIq and PIIs then technically the rule would break for ALL such <300Mil$ companies that ever would make it to PIII, wouldn't it. Then still the Market Capital will in NO WAY influence the outcome of actions that result from treatment that in many cases happened more then a YEAR before. So AFs rule CAN NEVER have been aimed at FAILURE due to data outcome of the trial if the trail is, in our case, unblinded.

CP, the F-R Rule as it is called applies ONLY to Phase III trials / companies. It is a retrospective rule in that when they first came up with it, they looked at various Phase III trial results and what the market cap. of the companies were 4-months prior to the results being announced. What they found was that in their sample 100% of the companies which had a market cap. of <$300 MM (4-months prior to data) the Phase III failed. Obviously it doesn't mean that if the MC is below $300 MM the trial will fail, but what it suggests or indicates (to me at least) is that the markets / wall street / "whatever you want to call it" expected the trials to fail and hence the poor valuations prior to data read out. Again the rule is based on a retrospective analysis and as such should be viewed accordingly.