Replies to post #236110 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[stoneroad]

CP, that's not an accurate reflection of his premise and I think you know that. Anyway, I'm done with this and folks can continue to kick and cry if they so desire.

[BioBS2012]

There is an important caveat that needs to be considered when talking about the A-F Rule. It looks at MC approx. 4 months PRIOR to DATA/RESULTS announcement. So far it has a stellar record in predicting failure !! Of course having said that PPHM is a YEAR or MORE away from DATA release so plenty of time for that MC to go above $300 million. :-)

stoneroad, that proves how stupid that AF rule is.

If PPHM has a Market Cap of 350Mil dollar then SUNRISE will succeed, however if a few months before there is some unrelated event (PPHM proper, sector realted like yesterday or market wide) that drives the share price down 20%, and as a consequence PPHM has then suddenly a market capital below 300Mil$, then SUNRISE will suddenly fail?

How stupid is that. The AF rule is a rule from someone that ran a statistic and found that there were many failures of clinical trials in companies under 300Mil$ market cap. That makes sense that group contains the many small biotechs that are VERY vulnerable and that stop because of money problems, or get acquired because of money problems and not because there drug fails, or just don't manage to get the people in the trials. So in the stats you see the drug as NOT APPROVED. A BP picked it up starts all over or simple continues and gets it approved under BPs name and of course BP has a market cap of 300Mil+$.

It is like a TREND. If you say something about a trend then you need to indicate the START point of your trend or any indication of UP or DOWN is irrelevant. The same goes for AF's rule. Because the guy doesn't come across as the most smart one he did think that his theory would be pierced like a balloon with the above example.

Who on Earth would believe that the SUNRISE outcome results would fluctuate depending on PPHM market cap. Market Cap at WHAT MOMENT? Start of trial? End of Trail? During the complete trial? Because without that information it is a WORTHLESS rule because everybody knows that patients in the SUNRISE control and Bavi arms will not 'event' depending on the variation in PPHM's market cap, would they?