Replies to post #262 on Sector Investing

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Dow weekly suggests market has bottomed

30th June: The weekly Dow chart gives the best indication of a long term bottom for the index. The Nasdaq also has a good chance of having bottomed.

Current Prediction:

Dow short term: none

Dow medium term: triple bottom points to 10,750 - not yet confirmed

Dow long term:
1. head and shoulders top (daily) points to 5,500 (log), 4,350 (arithmetic) - questionable
2. head and shoulders top (weekly) points to 5,770 (log), 4,730 (arithmetic) -questionable

Nasdaq short term: none

Nasdaq medium term: reverse head and shoulders points to 1,980 - not yet confirmed

S&P 500 medium term: triple bottom points to 1,140

S&P 500 long term: none

Long Bond: none

The triple bottom in red is not persuasive. A fall through 8,800 would cancel the bottom. A turn and rally above 9,400 would improve its chances.



Possible channels in pink, green and yellow. None is well-defined.



The weekly chart shows a double bottom on a fairly good support (red). Good chance that the index has bottomed.



Volume is picking up nicely, improving the chance of the index reaching target of 1,980. Resistance in green could see a pullback to the blue neckline.



Right on resistance.



Long term support and resistance in green.



Bottom in pink looks good. But remember, there is no volume for this index. So we can't be too confident about the prediction.



Possible resistance in yellow and black.



http://www.asiachart.com/dow.html

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Disk Drive Index Components - $DDX, ADIC, ADPT, FLSH, HTCH - 6 Month Daily Charts:





Disk drive stocks are the week’s best performers. After surging 55% in the second quarter, DDX is still strong and now trading at 18-month highs. The index is approaching major resistance between 115 and 120.

http://www.optionetics.com/articles/article_full.asp?idNo=8648

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Broker Dealer Stock Index Components - $BKX, AGE, AMTD, BSC, ET, GS, JEF - 6 Month Daily Charts: