Why would that be the last leg up? Why when the market get close, if it does, to 1770 would that be it?>>>
Because im looking at the strong possibility that a negative divergence will form on the MACD if/when we take out 1686...given all the negativity I see in general amongst traders I find it likely that we are simply in consolidation before another move up given the short compression in play here. Once the shorts capitulate then its likely the floor under this market will be removed. As Zeev so well said...you dont see too many tops with the P/C as high as it has been on almost every dip....witness todays 1+ reading all day.
I think the reason you find so many people calling tops -- and doing so with such incredible inaccuracy, is that most people have no idea what to look for. I'm only just beginning to learn myself, and I've been at this a while.
Below are two charts which I have made in MSFT Excel. They are based on the "internals" figure known as "net new highs," which is a snazzy way of saying new highs minus new lows.
The contrast between the two is intended to do two things:
[1] To give you a clue about what tops look like. (I say give you a clue, not to be sarcastic, but because I am, as I said, just learning this aspect of the market myself, so a clue is about all I can promise you.)
[2] To illustrate that even when this market tops out, it may not crash and burn the way so many perma-bears on this thread seem to think. In fact, I will be a bit surprised to see a correction of more than 10% before the next upleg. (I would not be at all surprised to see a few months of sideways action in a trading range before the next upleg.)
Anyhow, this is all JMDO, and anybody who commits actual money based on the say so of a small, fluffy, white doggie, (no matter how adorable that doggie may be), is a fool who deserves to be separated from his money.
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