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Tamhas

08/23/15 2:57 PM

#2433 RE: desarcmo #2432

Are you familiar with the Gartner Hype Cycle?
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3114217

When 3DP was going through its rapid stock price growth, it was on the initial upswing of this curve. It then peaked and reality failed to keep up with the hype. Ergo, a plunge into the Trough of Disillusionment. I tend to agree with Gartner that industrial 3DP is now past the bottom and on the way out, but that consumer 3DP is still over hyped relative to short term potential.

Thus, even through Arcam has been doing a good job at a small size growing sales and earnings (unlike many in the sector) it was nevertheless subject to excess price inflation early on and was dragged down with the sector subsequently. And, of course, when the market acts like it did the last two days, one expects a damaged sector like 3DP where there is limited confidence to go down as much or more than most.

After the market as a whole gets done with whatever it is up to generally at the moment, we can hope that the contrasting positions of industrial and consumer segments will soak in to the market and they will start making a segregation, but be careful about counting on that since the market hasn't been very good at segregating those stories so far. I suppose this is worsened by companies like SSYS and DDD which are in both so any stumble in either is seen as bad news for the whole sector, even though it may not apply to Arcam.