Replies to post #72619 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[mas]

I doubt whether you will actually be able to get any Core 2s on its 'launch' just as I doubt the immediate availibility of Woodcrest too on its launch. Add 2-4 weeks for true availibility I would say. AMD's Q2 and Q3 will be just fine and the stock should get back into the 30s once it is shown their profits will not be affected. ALL of AMD's production are of desirable parts and they will just sell more if prices are lower. It's only in Q4 that NGMA will start having a negative effect on AMD's profits as only then will it have arrived in sufficient quantity to do so.

[rlweitz]

Q3 guidance will be crappy, and if news of this gets out, this might make Q2 even worse that it is already tracking, as X2 buyers wait for July.

As a consumer, I've been patiently waiting for X2 price drops for months. I can wait another couple months.

Using Pricewatch as a current retail base price, the July 24 pricing should fall into the following ballpark.

Current ----------------> Est. July 24 Price
$685 - athlon 64 x2 am2 5000 -> 50% -> $343
$635 - athlon 64 x2 am2 4800 -> 50% -> $318
$550 - athlon 64 x2 am2 4600 -> 45% -> $302
$463 - athlon 64 x2 am2 4400 -> 40% -> $278
$378 - athlon 64 x2 am2 4200 -> 35% -> $246
$300 - athlon 64 x2 am2 3800 -> 35% -> $195
$627 - athlon 64 x2 4800 dual core -> 50% -> $314
$542 - athlon 64 x2 4600 dual core -> 45% -> $298
$458 - athlon 64 x2 4400 dual core -> 40% -> $274
$357 - athlon 64 x2 4200 dual core -> 35% -> $233
$324 - athlon 64 x2 4000 am2 -> 35% -> $211
$296 - athlon 64 x2 3800 dual core -> 35% -> $192