Yes I know you are partial to Scenario 3, who knows short term ? Longer term, I think you will get your wish.
My brother follows a T/A guy at the metamarkets web site. This guy tracks price/volume patterns and actually thinks Scenario 1 will occur to some degree. I'm not sure of course, but the "2 or 3 weeks left" approach seems pretty safe for now.
I've got one for you to look at - CICI. What do you think ? I'm not so sure about it.