If MSFT didn't use GW in their gaming I am sure Sphere could find a large gamer who might want to use GW to compete. They know GW's strengths and so why would they want to compete with it?
Microsoft should certainly know how to allow their own games to run on their new console without paying anyone to do it, at least I wouldn't pay a 3rd party if I were them.
Now, allowing competitor's games to run is a different story. That might be worth a license fee. ;=)
If Sphere were to sell their own upgrade to various gaming consoles, what licensing issues might emerge from that, since they are not the manufacturer of the console?