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Replies to #29692 on Biotech Values
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ThomasS

06/06/06 7:46 AM

#29694 RE: DewDiligence #29692

NVS/ANDS: If the ANDS drug works, Albuferon may be the loser. At any rate, we will know by end of Summer on ANA 975.
I would note that they had excellent results after 7 days; the current trial is 28 days with 2 separate dosing regimes; one is twice-daily admin.

I would add that an "all-oral" cocktail is not relevant though, of course, desirable. Would you prefer an all-oral that works after 4 months, or an oral/IM admin route that works in 1 month? I did not mind giving myself injections thrice weekly for 6 months while popping 1000 mg of Ribavirin daily; although I may be tougher than the average "Olive Oil" type patient. (A reference to Popeye's Olive Oil, not you Italian posters ;)
Bottom line (and you already know this, not meant to insult your intelligence): What will give a near-100% cure rate in the shortest timeframe, regardless of the side-effect profile. The current treatment would not be a side-effect gambit IF it worked in only 12 weeks with 100% efficacy.
It is the expected 48 week duration with horrible side-effects for a mere 35% cure rate that makes it ridiculous.
Personally, I think the drug (ANA 975) shows great promise. I exited ANDS at $11+ a few days ago and may get back in if there is a significant pullback. Also. ANA 380 is looking rather nice.
ANDS managed a beautiful NVS deal...if it all pans out.

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rkrw

06/06/06 8:42 AM

#29701 RE: DewDiligence #29692

Dew, nvs may well have protease programs in internal discovery. And you can assume nvs will license itmn's soon or go ahead and take out vrtx :-) nvs won't leave any gaps.


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DewDiligence

06/06/06 1:54 PM

#29711 RE: DewDiligence #29692

Albuferon-deal fallout is falling about where it should (IMO):

HGSI +4% (OK, but not great, deal terms)
ANDS -8% (no need for both ANA975 and Albuferon)