The long term move is behaving in a well defined range. The slow choppy move upward for the last 4 months still has not changed that pattern.
We like to label the last 4 months as a failed trend, but in fact it is well within the trend line for the last 2 years.
Odds do have a sharper move just based on the sideways action with an upward bias.
Now that earnings season is behind us the focus will once again be domestic economic indicators and international events. The market needs to confirm we are not slipping back into a deeper recession.
As for raising rates the street has to see back to back evidence of a stronger economy. This will take months. In my mind the angst on raising rates will be pushed back at least 2 months.
I will exclusively focus on domestic news to see if we continue to muddle along, or there is a decisive change from the last 2 years.
Not betting much these last 4 months because of lack of direction. Hope that changes soon.
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