Replies to post #29388 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Quiz answer (from the easier HCV quiz):

Q: What percent of HIV+ individuals in the U.S. have chronic HCV infection?

According to Carol Brosgart, VP of GILD (and former head of GILD’s clinical development), the answer is 40%. (Source: Today’s HCV webcast at the Sanford Bernstein conference)

[DewDiligence]

Quiz answer (from the hard/tricky HCV quiz):

Q: What percent of treatment-naïve individuals in the U.S. who have chronic HCV infection will benefit from therapy with currently approved drugs?

A: 3% !

This quiz is backgammon-like in that the answer requires stringing together a long parlay:

1. Roughly half of chronic HCV individuals in U.S. have abnormal levels of liver enzymes that are predictive of progression to organ failure or liver cancer.

2. Roughly half of the individuals in #1 will be diagnosed.

3. Roughly a quarter of the individuals in #2 will pursue and comply with drug therapy.

4. Roughly half of the individuals in #3 will realize a sustained virologic response.

The arithmetic: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.25 x 0.5 = approx 3%.