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RealDutch

05/11/15 6:39 AM

#88381 RE: Broke_Broker #88379

It says in the article that the Mega Farm will require huge investments over the next 10 years. That is not true.

SIAF gets paid for developing the farm. $40M, $50M, up to $60M in profits per year in a few years.

It's a $2.5 billion project for 20 years. So my guess is capex should be between $75M and $125M per year after Phase 1 Stage 1 (10,000MT) completion. Double that amount after 30,000 MT when/if they ramp up.

The Farm should be self-sufficient after Phase 1 (30,000MT) and if it isn't, those profits from consultancy will fill the gap. CA also gets paid for resale and marketing, that's roughly 15% gross margin on every dollar sold.

My guess, and fear is though, that payment terms will favor our JV partners in order to relieve some pressure.

So it boils down to this.

For SIAF, when production begins, the project will be cash flow neutral up to 10,000MT. After that it will be cash flow positive, just a little bit in the beginning. Much more after 30,000MT.

For the JV partners, they will need to invest more money, certainly up to 30,000MT after which the project will become cash flow neutral for them. And cash flow positive after some 50,000MT. That would be my best guess.

SIAF wants a 55% stake. It will cost them roughly $150M. Half of that will come from income from consultancy. The other $75M will have to come from loans or spin-offs, or divestments.
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Petrejus

05/11/15 6:48 AM

#88382 RE: Broke_Broker #88379

Not too impressed with his conclusion though.

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