Replies to post #122752 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Bearmove]

Its difficult to predict a longer term roadmap and anyone who says they can is full of crap. With so many possible negative global triggers we could tank on a dime at any time. I believe this market is infact in another bubble, especially in tech. The earnings are simply not there. On the brighter side, those tax cuts should produce some additional spending within a few sectors during the 2nd half. I think selected retail stocks could become interesting on pullbacks. I suspect we're going to see some retailers warning about the rain in the northeastern states this quarter. As these pullback I plan to set my self up for the back to school season.
As for tech, If you recall a few months ago I said mark my words....SARS will cause many earning warnings within tech. Some here said I was wrong and SARS was a nonevent. Well, now we're starting to hear the SARS excuse over and over again. Expect many more.
This summer many consumers will vacation via road trips. I'm concerned that we could see a pop in oil prices this summer. As a result I'm watching energy stocks and fuel cell stocks.

This market is so overbought that another 500-700 point drop in July on the Dow wouldn't surprise me. In the mean time I believe buying selected stocks on pullbacks here may reward traders going into the spin earnings season. Face it, almost every single earnings season we see buying. So the July pullback should really start to kick in mid-July. As for this week, I still expect a window dressing rally which should last until Monday. Then we see some profit taking start next Tues for a few days before the spinning season starts. I'm interested in many selected stocks like AAPL, ATYT, LSI and GPS. I'm also interested in companies where the insiders are buying.

As for Greenspan, I doubt he is going to let all his hard work fall apart here. Between the Fed, tax cuts and the coming election I'd say the next 6 months could fool many. As a trader I love this market here because I know I will locate winners as many others just follow the crowd. A few days pullback on lite volume is not enough ammo to predict a top. They say trade what you see not what you think. To many thinking traders out there.