Replies to post #190734 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I don't think it's worth much bandwith quibbling over 3% but this is mulligan's response when asked about april market share:

April share data, I actually don’t have anything on my fingertips Matthew, but I am not sensing any dramatic change whatsoever in the dynamics and the share and the prescriptions that we’re getting. Robin?

I think a 3% swing falls into the "no dramatic change whatsoever" category so why not go by a point estimate of 13% (low teens) that was given by abbv? I'm not saying the 13% is not a disappointment - i expected abbv to ramp a bit faster in the US but my expectation was 20% at peak - lower than yours so I'm not all that thrown by 13%. ABBV is certainly not deceiving regarding some of their contracts - NY medicaid I know doesn't kick in in earnest until april 9 for example, so for sure whatever the share was in march is going to go up by something
More than anything the GILD call elucidated the size of the pie - we already knew that ABBV was tracking "low teens". I also think you can use the 10% Q1 figure to estimate the discount ABBV is giving as in my prior post (15k per Rx at 10% share equates to 138M in sales if you follow my rambling prior post)