Replies to post #190002 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

so is MNTA a value now?
The bull case is obvious, but what is the drug worth assuming they have to battle another lawsuit from TEVA (much like SNY post lovenox) and another generic is approved prior to launch? is the thrice weekly approval a guarantee? i didn't listen to the call
I've been out of this one for a while but if you have some handy model that you are willing to share would be great
PS: My inclination would be to think the profit share should be able to bring in 150M annually* even in a multiple generic setting which would make it worth close to a billion, but i could be missing something

*rough back of the envelope calculation 3B US sales w 2 generics and 40% discount plus some additional erosion due to competition (oral agents mainly) = 1.5B sales split evenly among 3 players = 500M annual sales w 60% margin = 300 M profit/2 = 150. i think my assumptions are conservative..

[pollyvonwog]

On top of that, after going through the CP, the approval process just seems a lot more difficult/complicated than enox. This seems to be quite bullish for MNTA.