Replies to post #189541 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

OCRX—Perhaps though transient blood NH3 levels aren't as well correlated to time to [HE] symptom improvement and there are other factors associated with gut clearance that have a contributory effect (see link below to PEG trial).

Thanks for the citation. Regarding the phase-2a data from the IST, OCRX’s CSO thinks the upper-GI major bleeding (the indication for the IST) caused patients to have NH3 dumped into the gut, which then had to be “digested,” and that this was another cause of the odd dose response.

All told, I’m not that troubled by the dose-response issue, especially now that the DSMB has weighed in and has presumably maintained approximately 80% power due to the upsized enrollment. What’s more concerning than the dose response, IMO, is that the likely reduction in time-to-HE-improvement of ~15% relative to SoC would only translate into about one day of shortened hospitalization. Still, given the commonly "bundled" reimbursement schedule for HE hospitalization, even one day saved could be a material economic incentive for the hospitals.

[jq1234]

>> Perhaps though transient blood NH3 levels aren't as well correlated to time to symptom improvement and there are other factors associated with gut clearance that have a contributory effect


That's a great point I tried but couldn't figure out what was the basis for their original assumption.