Replies to post #189512 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: OCRX post-mortem on DSMB action

…an equity raise in 2016 is almost certain. Exit stage left toward the end of 2015, early 2016.

Well, a lot of things could happen between now and then—e.g. meaningful progress on the oral formulation of OCR-002.

The DSMB’s action in STOP-HE this week had the effect of reducing the regulatory risk for OCR-002 (by maintaining the statistical power of the trial at ~80%) while increasing the commercial risk (by implicitly revealing a lower-than-modeled efficacy relative to the SoC—see #msg-112338165). For investors who hold the stock until the final STOP-HE data are reported in 2H16, the above may not be such a bad tradeoff.

(See #msg-112380948 for related info.)