Replies to post #189477 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

OCRX—The DSMB’s observed improvement in the primary endpoint (relative to the control arm) is probably ~15% rather than the 23% that OCRX modeled (at 80% power).

[DewDiligence]

OCRX—…if we get the full 15% downside [in my model], then we are looking at $3.80-3.90.

That’s close to where the stock bottomed today, but it was off (only) 9% at the close. It was encouraging to see the bounce-back, which was presumably driven by value investors who think the EV is simply too low, even under the new STOP-HE parameters.