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Tom K

06/19/03 12:45 PM

#7847 RE: augieboo #7845

Augie, sure thing. I probably won't have time to work on it until sometime next week.

BTW, I have another question for you. You've done a ton of great work in regards to market breadth indicators. Was wondering if I could have your take on how to best use breadth indicators (see point #2 below). I'm currently writing a stock market manifesto of sorts with a detailed description of how my intermediate models work.

Conceptually my models are based on six behaviors (tendencies, anomallies, principles, etc.) the stock market consistantly exhibits. These behaviors can be quantified as indicators which can be used to maximize returns by minimizing exposure to equities. The behaviors are:

1. Price Trends: Prices tend to trend. The best bet is to stay on the right side of the trend.
2. Breadth Trends: Trends in breadth tend to mirror trends in price. Beware of reversals when breadth trends reach extremes, HOWEVER, because you can never know how high is too high or how low is too low, don't buck the current trend. Also - When the breadth trend diverges from the price trend, there is a strong tendency for a reversal.
3. Price Momentum: Price momentum tends to lead market prices. The longer the divergence between price and momentum, the more likely a reversal will occur.
4. Breadth Momentun: Breadth thrusts (short-term periods of overwhelmingly positive breadth) tend to have bullish implications for intermediate/long term prices. Selling climaxes(short-term periods of overwhelmingly negative breadth) also tend to be bullish EXCEPT the market may experience more down side action over the short term.
5. Sentiment: Extremes in sentiment tend to signal risk of a reversal is growing. The longer the extreme exists, the more likely a reversal will occur. Note: The best bet is to wait until sentiment peaks or troughs. Anticipating sentiment extremes is risky.
6. Monetary Conditions: Falling interest rates and an accommodative monetary policy tends to be bullish for stocks. Don't fight the Fed.

Thoughts?