Replies to post #188641 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

sovalid vs harvoni discount

The average discount is almost certainly larger on Harvoni than it is on Sovaldi

agree, but because harvoni is used over 3x more than sovaldi the difference is likely not all that large - probably something like 48% harvoni 40% sovaldi (I think GILD would want to make sure harvoni is still more than sovalid in terms of absolute cost, and these numbers are consistent with a 46% blended rate assuming 75/25 breakdown)

PS: I think the 46% is comservative much like sales estimates early in the year, so my hunch is at the end of the day rebating will be somewhat less than 46%. They are on record saying rebating is tied to volume and plans opening up tx which seems like a rather difficult thing to predict so early in the launch